1. On the impact of a new Netanyahu/Lieberman right-wing government:
A.
Lieberman’s “joining up with Likud's radical,
anti-liberal wing…means that in the next Knesset, there will be an escalation
of anti-democratic legislation. Minorities will be pushed down. The opposition
will be silenced. The media will be exhausted, …” wrote Nahum Barnea in
Yediot last week.
B.
“From now on, all citizens should know that when they
put the slip bearing the letters of the unified [Likud-Beiteinu] party in the
ballot box, they are voting for a platform that seeks to hold onto the
[occupied] territories no matter what, to perpetuate discrimination against the
Arabs within Israel's borders, to reject any chance for reconciliation with the
Palestinians, and to face off against the world on the false pretense of
Israel's welfare. They are also voting to institute an anti-liberal regime
within the state and a harsh occupation policy within the territories, and to
steep Israel
even more in an atmosphere of nationalist indoctrination,” warned
Uzi Benziman in Ha’aretz.
C.
Former Israeli intelligence officials and Middle East
experts have informed Netanyahu that continued “construction in
Israeli West Bank settlements without diplomatic progress” towards peace could
“trigger
a violent uprising in the West Bank.”
2.
How a
center-left bloc, under the possible leadership of Olmert (or Peres), could end
up drawing more Knesset seats than the Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu union, with
enough seats to form a moderate government that could revive moribund
Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, advance social justice, and halt the erosion
of democratic values in Israel.
Even now before the new center-left bloc has been formed,
center and left Zionist parties together have polled a total of 45 seats, while
the new Likud-Beiteinu union has polled as low as 35 seats, down from its
present 42. A Channel 10
poll gave Labor 23, Yesh Atid 13, Kadima 5, and Meretz 4, totaling 45. The Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu bloc would receive
between 35 and 42. With Shas expected to receive 14 seats,
under current projections, Olmert or Peres may well be able to coopt Shas under
Aryeh Deri to form a 59-seat coalition, close but not yet enough to cross the majority
threshold of 61.
But with the Arab parties, which are slated to receive 10 or
11 seats, the center-left could form a “blocking majority” that would be able
to prevent Netanayahu and Lieberman from forming a government, enabling the
center-left bloc to form the government.
In addition, the center-left
bloc’s seats could grow and Likud Beiteinu’s may drop after the center-left
parties and their leadership lists are fully formed, with Olmert’s return to
the scene, and win the endorsement of a number of “security heavyweights” who
will also help undermine confidence in Netanyahu. (See also, “Haaretz
poll: A Livni-Olmert-Lapid 'super-party' would outscore Likud: If the center and the left together could
garner 61 seats, it would deprive Netanyahu of the ability to form a majority
government,” Ha’aretz, Oct. 18, 2012)
In fact, the most recent Channel 10 poll (Ha'aretz, Nov. 14, 2012)
shows Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu dropping from its current 42 seats in the Knesset
to just 36.
As Leslie Susser points out in the Jerusalem Report: “Stav Shaffir, one of the [social] protest
leaders, has already announced that she will run for a place on the Labor list.
The big test for Yachimovich will be whether she can deliver a wider message,
and bring in new high profile people, ex-generals or diplomats, to bolster her
limited security-diplomatic credentials. Success for her, coupled with a strong
centrist showing, could help the center-left together with the Arab parties
achieve a blocking majority and a chance to form the next government. Together,
they have 55 seats in the current Knesset, so it would take a six seat or five
percent (around 200,000 votes) swing to obtain a blocking majority.” (The
Netanyahu Gambit,10/16/2012)
Of course, many things could go wrong to derail a
center-left government from taking power under Olmert, such as the remaining
corruption charges still pending against Olmert, or just plain old fashioned
losing the election to Netanyahu and Lieberman.
See for example: “An
Olmert comeback: The center-left cursed by a blessing: Though the former prime minister has long
been touted as the great white hope of the center-left, too many undecided
factors blight his potential return,” Anshel Pfeffer, Ha’aretz, Nov.13, 2012.
But the center-left has a chance to win this time around,
and President Obama should revive credible Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts in
the coming weeks to avert the crisis which is likely to follow Palestinian recognition
as an observer state at the UN, because it is the best policy for the U.S.
and for Israelis and Palestinians themselves.
By doing so, he might also give an inadvertent lift to the center-left
parties in Israel’s
upcoming election, without appearing to play a partisan role in Israeli
politics, thus making it more likely that Israeli-Palestinian negotiations will bear fruit this time.
